| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | North Alabama | 31-14 | 1608.6 | +8.7 | 1617.3 | 94.7% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | L | Utah | 10-43 | 1617.3 | +21.9 | 1639.2 | 11.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Georgia | 17-45 | 1639.2 | -53.5 | 1585.7 | 7.2% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | W | Tulsa | 34-6 | 1585.7 | +43.9 | 1629.6 | 58.8% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Texas A&M | 7-34 | 1629.6 | -19.3 | 1610.3 | 20.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Tennessee | 17-24 | 1610.3 | -2.2 | 1608.1 | 16.1% |