12 intra-FBS games of 2026, each graded against the DraftKings closing line and the result. Every game the book closed carries a pick — the side Lattice prefers to that number — and all of them are counted below.
| Lattice | DraftKings | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean error on the margin | 17.34 | 14.25 | -3.09 |
| Log loss (3 priced games) | 0.8715 | 0.8688 | -0.0027 |
Both log losses are averaged over the same games — the ones DraftKings put a price on. The book closes a spread on more games than it prices, and scoring the model over all of them against the market over a subset is not a comparison.
| Week | Games | Picks ATS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 3–9 25.0% |
| Season | Games | Picks ATS | Lattice MAE | DraftKings MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 718 | 328–374–16 46.7% | 12.53 | 12.06 |
| 2024 | 776 | 401–360–15 52.7% | 12.42 | 12.11 |
| 2025 | 761 | 378–371–12 50.5% | 12.19 | 11.84 |
The side in this colour is the one Lattice preferred to the closing number. Every game the book closed has one, and every one of them is counted in the record above.
| Wk | Date | Matchup | Result | DK close | Lattice | Edge | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026-08-29 | North Carolina vs TCU | 15–10 | +7.5 | +12.8 | -5.3 | missed |
| 1 | 2026-08-29 | USC v San José State | 42–26 | -37.5 | -38.2 | +0.7 | missed |
| 1 | 2026-08-29 | Virginia v NC State | 34–8 | -4.0 | -1.0 | -3.0 | missed |
| 1 | 2026-08-29 | North Dakota State v Jacksonville State | 33–7 | -6.5 | +0.2 | -6.7 | missed |
| 1 | 2026-08-29 | Eastern Michigan v Sacramento State | 28–17 | -9.5 | -4.9 | -4.6 | missed |
| 1 | 2026-08-29 | Florida State v New Mexico State | 34–17 | -30.5 | -31.6 | +1.1 | missed |
| 1 | 2026-08-29 | Stanford v Hawai'i | 37–27 | -4.5 | -5.1 | +0.6 | covered |
| 1 | 2026-08-30 | UNLV v Memphis | 21–27 | -4.0 | -2.3 | -1.7 | covered |
| 1 | 2026-09-03 | Rutgers v Massachusetts | 21–37 | -29.5 | -46.4 | +16.9 | missed |
| 1 | 2026-09-03 | Wake Forest v Akron | 38–16 | -27.5 | -21.3 | -6.2 | covered |
| 1 | 2026-09-04 | Georgia Tech v Colorado | 13–14 | -6.5 | -11.0 | +4.5 | missed |
| 1 | 2026-09-04 | Illinois v UAB | 42–23 | -25.5 | -26.8 | +1.3 | missed |
Until BET-4 the page graded only flagged games — the ones where Lattice landed 1–5 points from the line. Graded forward against the closing number the flag lost to the games it passed on in all three seasons, so it is retired and every pick is followed instead. The record it left behind:
| Games | Against the spread | |
|---|---|---|
| Flagged | 6 (50.0%) | 1–5 16.7% |
| Passed on — the control | 6 | 2–4 33.3% |