| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Baylor | 17-16 | 1698.7 | +6.5 | 1705.3 | 45.4% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Southern Miss | 43-8 | 1705.3 | +73.0 | 1778.2 | 84.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Florida | 39-44 | 1778.2 | -40.0 | 1738.3 | 37.2% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Vanderbilt | 21-15 | 1738.3 | +14.3 | 1752.5 | 52.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Tennessee | 14-24 | 1752.5 | -16.1 | 1736.5 | 36.9% |