| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 2026 | W | Merrimack | 42-7 | 1429.1 | +45.8 | 1474.9 | 90.1% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Vanderbilt | 26-35 | 1474.9 | +51.5 | 1526.4 | 8.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Coastal Carolina | 22-14 | 1526.4 | -2.9 | 1523.5 | 55.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Virginia | 3-42 | 1523.5 | -54.2 | 1469.3 | 15.3% |
| 5 | Oct 2 2026 | L | Liberty | 14-30 | 1469.3 | -37.2 | 1432.1 | 34.6% |
| 7 | Oct 13 2026 | L | Middle Tennessee | 30-33 | 1430.0 | -11.7 | 1418.3 | 66.6% |