| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Delaware State | 35-17 | 1276.5 | -1.3 | 1275.2 | 84.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Colorado | 7-31 | 1275.2 | +11.2 | 1286.4 | 6.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | UConn | 44-41 | 1286.4 | +64.4 | 1350.8 | 11.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Florida International | 38-16 | 1350.8 | +86.2 | 1437.0 | 40.5% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 24-27 | 1432.3 | -13.7 | 1418.6 | 40.1% |
| 9 | Oct 15 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 25-38 | 1417.9 | -14.0 | 1403.9 | 39.7% |
| 10 | Oct 22 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 31-28 | 1403.9 | -31.0 | 1372.9 | 70.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Liberty | 30-59 | 1372.9 | -57.2 | 1315.7 | 42.1% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Louisiana Tech | 25-24 | 1315.7 | +16.5 | 1332.2 | 24.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Sam Houston | 23-26 | 1332.2 | -13.4 | 1318.8 | 64.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Wake Forest | 14-52 | 1318.8 | -32.2 | 1286.6 | 12.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UTEP | 61-31 | 1286.6 | +47.5 | 1334.1 | 46.6% |
| 18 | Dec 17 2025 | W | Louisiana | 20-13 | 1332.4 | +23.1 | 1355.5 | 31.9% |