| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Stephen F. Austin | 27-0 | 1706.7 | -20.2 | 1686.5 | 96.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Rice | 35-9 | 1686.5 | +72.9 | 1759.4 | 70.9% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | W | Colorado | 36-20 | 1759.4 | +32.1 | 1791.5 | 54.4% |
| 6 | Sep 26 2025 | W | Oregon State | 27-24 | 1794.3 | -27.8 | 1766.5 | 87.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 11-35 | 1766.5 | -53.6 | 1712.9 | 24.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 39-17 | 1712.9 | +13.2 | 1726.1 | 87.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Arizona | 31-28 | 1726.1 | +2.0 | 1728.1 | 44.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Arizona State | 24-16 | 1728.1 | +27.6 | 1755.7 | 37.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | West Virginia | 35-45 | 1755.7 | -30.5 | 1725.2 | 73.2% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | W | UCF | 30-27 | 1725.2 | +10.4 | 1735.6 | 47.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | TCU | 14-17 | 1735.4 | -5.0 | 1730.4 | 43.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Baylor | 31-24 | 1730.4 | +15.5 | 1745.9 | 49.2% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | LSU | 38-35 | 1746.1 | +14.3 | 1760.4 | 34.9% |