| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Oregon State | 33-20 | 1768.1 | -91.1 | 1677.0 | 70.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Southern | 77-6 | 1677.0 | +49.6 | 1726.6 | 99.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Texas Tech | 26-28 | 1726.6 | -3.2 | 1723.4 | 41.2% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Georgia Southern | 42-28 | 1723.4 | -5.0 | 1718.5 | 91.4% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | UCF | 27-17 | 1718.5 | +23.9 | 1742.3 | 60.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Kansas State | 35-16 | 1742.3 | +25.9 | 1768.3 | 55.0% |