| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Youngstown State | 45-13 | 1711.9 | -61.6 | 1650.2 | 96.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Alabama | 17-45 | 1650.2 | -14.8 | 1635.5 | 16.9% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Texas A&M | 31-21 | 1635.5 | +76.3 | 1711.8 | 8.1% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | South Alabama | 45-21 | 1711.8 | +5.0 | 1716.8 | 81.5% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | South Carolina | 35-34 | 1716.8 | +7.9 | 1724.7 | 43.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | LSU | 35-34 | 1724.7 | +0.0 | 1724.7 | 24.2% |