| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Clemson | 51-10 | 1807.1 | +18.2 | 1825.4 | 82.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Louisiana Tech | 45-14 | 1825.4 | +47.9 | 1873.3 | 87.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Ole Miss | 24-32 | 1873.3 | -39.3 | 1834.0 | 56.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Texas A&M | 35-6 | 1834.0 | +36.9 | 1870.9 | 47.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | McNeese | 63-14 | 1870.9 | -9.1 | 1861.8 | 99.7% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Kentucky | 34-35 | 1861.8 | -24.3 | 1837.5 | 75.8% |