| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | L | Ole Miss | 38-41 | 1730.7 | -4.3 | 1726.4 | 36.5% |
| 2 | Sep 11 2026 | W | Villanova | 59-13 | 1726.4 | +13.9 | 1740.4 | 97.7% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | SMU | 41-31 | 1740.4 | +13.6 | 1754.0 | 44.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Wake Forest | 27-30 | 1754.0 | -49.0 | 1705.0 | 75.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | NC State | 28-31 | 1705.0 | +6.7 | 1711.7 | 56.2% |
| 6 | Oct 9 2026 | W | Florida State | 44-20 | 1711.7 | +29.9 | 1741.6 | 49.9% |