| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Georgia | 7-45 | 1654.8 | -67.5 | 1587.3 | 11.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Missouri State | 20-21 | 1587.3 | -89.1 | 1498.2 | 91.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Eastern Kentucky | 38-7 | 1498.2 | +39.9 | 1538.1 | 88.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 42-28 | 1538.1 | +16.0 | 1554.1 | 82.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Louisiana | 51-54 | 1554.1 | -17.7 | 1536.4 | 68.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Old Dominion | 48-24 | 1540.7 | +81.1 | 1621.8 | 20.2% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Texas State | 40-37 | 1621.8 | -11.8 | 1610.0 | 53.5% |
| 11 | Oct 30 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 27-44 | 1612.5 | -50.5 | 1562.0 | 78.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | James Madison | 23-35 | 1562.0 | -4.9 | 1557.1 | 20.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Georgia State | 30-18 | 1557.1 | +17.3 | 1574.4 | 83.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | App State | 24-26 | 1574.4 | -16.8 | 1557.6 | 75.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 19-24 | 1557.6 | -20.0 | 1537.6 | 70.0% |