| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Penn State | 0-45 | 1438.2 | +40.6 | 1478.8 | 5.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Middle Tennessee | 28-26 | 1478.8 | -0.7 | 1478.1 | 71.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Missouri State | 30-24 | 1478.1 | +16.1 | 1494.2 | 61.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Gardner-Webb | 36-35 | 1494.2 | -18.1 | 1476.1 | 77.7% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | James Madison | 17-45 | 1476.1 | -1.5 | 1474.6 | 8.2% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Coastal Carolina | 21-27 | 1474.6 | -26.0 | 1448.5 | 55.1% |