| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Tulane | 3-23 | 1681.2 | -73.4 | 1607.8 | 53.3% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | W | Western Illinois | 42-7 | 1607.8 | +9.6 | 1617.4 | 95.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Oregon | 14-34 | 1617.4 | +18.5 | 1635.9 | 4.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | UCLA | 17-14 | 1620.3 | -7.3 | 1613.0 | 67.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 42-7 | 1613.0 | +58.8 | 1671.8 | 81.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Penn State | 22-21 | 1671.8 | +41.8 | 1713.6 | 17.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Purdue | 19-0 | 1713.6 | +30.2 | 1743.8 | 64.8% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Nebraska | 21-28 | 1743.8 | -8.3 | 1735.5 | 34.8% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | L | USC | 17-38 | 1732.0 | -5.7 | 1726.3 | 18.2% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Michigan | 22-24 | 1726.3 | +5.6 | 1731.9 | 23.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Minnesota | 38-35 | 1731.9 | +0.1 | 1732.0 | 53.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Illinois | 13-20 | 1732.0 | -2.9 | 1729.1 | 34.5% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 34-7 | 1728.7 | +17.6 | 1746.3 | 85.2% |