| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | South Dakota State | 34-18 | 1756.4 | -95.6 | 1660.8 | 95.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Colorado | 41-7 | 1661.5 | +35.2 | 1696.7 | 63.1% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Indiana | 23-29 | 1696.7 | +24.1 | 1720.7 | 16.3% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Penn State | 34-13 | 1720.7 | +37.7 | 1758.5 | 43.3% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Ball State | 45-14 | 1758.5 | -26.7 | 1731.8 | 98.6% |