| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Miami (OH) | 59-14 | 1714.3 | -2.4 | 1711.9 | 90.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | UCF | 12-7 | 1711.9 | +7.7 | 1719.7 | 63.2% |
| 3 | Sep 17 2026 | W | Syracuse | 27-13 | 1719.7 | -6.4 | 1713.2 | 78.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Bucknell | 59-0 | 1713.2 | +24.7 | 1738.0 | 98.7% |
| 5 | Oct 2 2026 | W | Virginia Tech | 35-33 | 1738.0 | -14.7 | 1723.3 | 66.1% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | North Carolina | 17-21 | 1723.3 | -42.0 | 1681.3 | 77.5% |