| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 7 2026 | W | Florida State | 27-24 | 1678.1 | +39.5 | 1717.6 | 52.6% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | UC Davis | 56-10 | 1717.6 | +18.7 | 1736.3 | 97.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Louisville | 31-41 | 1736.3 | -20.4 | 1715.9 | 55.3% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | W | Missouri State | 34-24 | 1715.9 | -33.6 | 1682.3 | 95.4% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Boston College | 25-16 | 1682.3 | +8.9 | 1691.3 | 82.3% |