| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sep 1 2025 | W | North Carolina | 48-14 | 1831.7 | +101.9 | 1933.6 | 76.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Abilene Christian | 42-21 | 1937.1 | -71.3 | 1865.8 | 98.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | SMU | 35-24 | 1865.8 | +6.8 | 1872.6 | 65.1% |
| 6 | Sep 26 2025 | L | Arizona State | 24-27 | 1872.6 | -6.0 | 1866.6 | 52.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Colorado | 35-21 | 1866.6 | +4.0 | 1870.6 | 67.3% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Kansas State | 28-41 | 1870.6 | -36.8 | 1833.8 | 64.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Baylor | 42-36 | 1833.8 | +10.4 | 1844.2 | 58.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | West Virginia | 23-17 | 1844.2 | -15.1 | 1829.1 | 83.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Iowa State | 17-20 | 1835.0 | -9.0 | 1826.0 | 51.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | BYU | 13-44 | 1826.0 | -41.6 | 1784.4 | 32.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Houston | 17-14 | 1784.4 | +9.7 | 1794.1 | 57.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 45-23 | 1794.1 | +23.7 | 1817.8 | 50.1% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | W | USC | 30-27 | 1818.0 | +13.5 | 1831.5 | 28.6% |