| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | L | North Carolina | 10-15 | 1670.2 | -47.9 | 1622.3 | 56.9% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | W | Grambling | 63-7 | 1622.3 | +24.4 | 1646.6 | 98.9% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | Arkansas State | 31-7 | 1646.6 | +6.5 | 1653.1 | 89.6% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | UCF | 13-21 | 1653.1 | +15.0 | 1668.1 | 51.1% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | BYU | 10-17 | 1668.1 | +9.5 | 1677.6 | 23.2% |