| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Nicholls | 38-20 | 1501.2 | -12.5 | 1488.7 | 90.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Clemson | 16-27 | 1488.7 | +36.2 | 1524.9 | 10.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Memphis | 7-28 | 1524.9 | -46.1 | 1478.8 | 28.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Buffalo | 21-17 | 1478.8 | +6.9 | 1485.7 | 52.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | South Alabama | 31-24 | 1486.1 | +16.0 | 1502.1 | 53.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Texas State | 48-41 | 1502.1 | +42.5 | 1544.6 | 33.2% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 37-14 | 1544.6 | +17.6 | 1562.2 | 80.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Louisiana | 35-23 | 1562.2 | -1.0 | 1561.2 | 67.9% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 10-23 | 1561.2 | -43.5 | 1517.7 | 68.4% |
| 13 | Nov 13 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 0-33 | 1516.8 | -40.5 | 1476.3 | 33.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Georgia State | 31-19 | 1476.3 | +0.5 | 1476.8 | 75.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 28-18 | 1476.8 | +17.3 | 1494.1 | 57.6% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | L | James Madison | 14-31 | 1494.1 | +8.7 | 1502.8 | 10.0% |
| 18 | Dec 16 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 13-17 | 1502.9 | -9.8 | 1493.1 | 55.5% |