| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Sam Houston | 24-21 | 1510.4 | -34.3 | 1476.2 | 75.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Alabama State | 34-17 | 1476.2 | -13.1 | 1463.1 | 92.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Missouri | 17-27 | 1463.1 | +38.4 | 1501.5 | 6.0% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Utah State | 10-21 | 1501.5 | -5.4 | 1496.1 | 40.6% |
| 6 | Oct 7 2026 | W | Southern Miss | 55-34 | 1503.8 | +22.0 | 1525.8 | 61.3% |