| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Akron | 10-0 | 1508.3 | +13.5 | 1521.8 | 73.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Northern Iowa | 31-7 | 1521.8 | -4.6 | 1517.2 | 83.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Utah | 6-31 | 1517.2 | -19.5 | 1497.7 | 9.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Colorado | 20-37 | 1497.7 | -11.7 | 1486.0 | 23.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | UNLV | 17-31 | 1492.7 | -22.7 | 1470.0 | 32.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | San José State | 35-28 | 1470.0 | +23.2 | 1493.2 | 45.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Air Force | 21-24 | 1493.2 | -3.4 | 1489.8 | 48.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Colorado State | 28-0 | 1489.8 | +51.5 | 1541.3 | 52.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | San Diego State | 7-24 | 1541.3 | -16.4 | 1524.9 | 29.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Fresno State | 3-24 | 1519.6 | -33.6 | 1486.0 | 47.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Nevada | 7-13 | 1486.0 | -26.1 | 1459.9 | 62.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 7-27 | 1459.9 | -21.1 | 1438.8 | 39.0% |