| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Colorado State | 13-35 | 1420.7 | -9.3 | 1411.4 | 34.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Northern Colorado | 21-13 | 1411.4 | +8.0 | 1419.4 | 63.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Central Michigan | 10-24 | 1419.4 | -20.1 | 1399.3 | 59.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Hawai'i | 27-10 | 1399.3 | +35.4 | 1434.7 | 34.1% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | North Dakota State | 0-28 | 1434.7 | -29.1 | 1405.6 | 21.5% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | San José State | 16-13 | 1405.6 | +19.3 | 1424.9 | 38.1% |