| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 2026 | L | Wake Forest | 16-38 | 1371.0 | -9.9 | 1361.1 | 2.9% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Robert Morris | 45-10 | 1361.1 | +22.5 | 1383.6 | 90.7% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Minnesota | 7-41 | 1383.6 | -1.4 | 1382.2 | 12.6% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | UNLV | 10-38 | 1382.2 | -37.0 | 1345.2 | 32.6% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Central Michigan | 17-41 | 1345.2 | -7.6 | 1337.6 | 46.0% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Eastern Michigan | 23-25 | 1337.6 | +5.6 | 1343.2 | 36.9% |