| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Wyoming | 0-10 | 1329.8 | -13.5 | 1316.3 | 26.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Nebraska | 0-68 | 1316.3 | -134.8 | 1181.5 | 5.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | UAB | 28-31 | 1181.5 | +37.9 | 1219.4 | 20.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Duquesne | 51-7 | 1219.4 | +57.3 | 1276.7 | 87.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Toledo | 3-45 | 1276.7 | -45.5 | 1231.2 | 9.4% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 28-22 | 1231.2 | +16.2 | 1247.4 | 37.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 7-20 | 1247.4 | -6.2 | 1241.2 | 14.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Ball State | 28-42 | 1241.2 | -10.9 | 1230.3 | 48.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Buffalo | 24-16 | 1230.3 | +41.0 | 1271.3 | 23.2% |
| 12 | Nov 4 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 44-10 | 1274.8 | +44.6 | 1319.4 | 69.3% |
| 13 | Nov 11 2025 | L | Kent State | 35-42 | 1319.4 | -36.4 | 1283.0 | 67.3% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 19-16 | 1283.0 | +12.3 | 1295.3 | 38.5% |