| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Idaho State | 38-31 | 1570.6 | +59.4 | 1630.0 | 60.0% |
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 38-21 | 1630.0 | +33.8 | 1663.8 | 67.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UCLA | 30-23 | 1663.8 | +20.2 | 1684.0 | 70.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 41-38 | 1684.0 | +28.3 | 1712.3 | 73.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Wyoming | 31-17 | 1712.3 | +12.9 | 1725.2 | 88.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Air Force | 51-48 | 1725.2 | +5.3 | 1730.5 | 91.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Boise State | 31-56 | 1730.5 | -41.7 | 1688.8 | 57.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | New Mexico | 35-40 | 1688.8 | -74.9 | 1613.9 | 84.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Colorado State | 42-10 | 1613.9 | +14.0 | 1627.9 | 87.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Utah State | 29-26 | 1627.9 | +10.9 | 1638.8 | 83.3% |
| 14 | Nov 21 2025 | W | Hawai'i | 38-10 | 1638.8 | +17.2 | 1656.0 | 74.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Nevada | 42-17 | 1656.0 | +7.1 | 1663.1 | 93.8% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | L | Boise State | 21-38 | 1663.1 | -40.7 | 1622.4 | 55.8% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | L | Ohio | 10-17 | 1622.4 | -47.9 | 1574.5 | 56.4% |