| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Chattanooga | 45-10 | 1697.1 | +0.0 | 1697.1 | 75.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Georgia State | 38-16 | 1697.1 | +8.4 | 1705.5 | 92.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Troy | 28-7 | 1705.5 | +18.3 | 1723.8 | 83.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Arkansas | 32-31 | 1723.8 | +23.1 | 1746.9 | 66.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 55-26 | 1746.9 | +2.6 | 1749.5 | 97.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Tulsa | 45-7 | 1749.5 | +2.0 | 1751.5 | 96.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | UAB | 24-31 | 1751.5 | -81.1 | 1670.4 | 96.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | South Florida | 34-31 | 1670.4 | +26.1 | 1696.5 | 62.2% |
| 11 | Oct 31 2025 | W | Rice | 38-14 | 1696.5 | +11.1 | 1707.6 | 90.1% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | L | Tulane | 32-38 | 1707.6 | -57.5 | 1650.1 | 60.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | East Carolina | 27-31 | 1650.1 | -51.6 | 1598.5 | 67.9% |
| 15 | Nov 27 2025 | L | Navy | 17-28 | 1598.5 | -45.1 | 1553.4 | 45.2% |
| 18 | Dec 19 2025 | L | NC State | 7-31 | 1553.4 | -42.4 | 1511.0 | 49.9% |