| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 42-10 | 1166.8 | +76.9 | 1243.7 | 12.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Howard | 55-7 | 1243.7 | +0.0 | 1243.7 | 18.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Oklahoma | 3-42 | 1243.7 | -9.3 | 1234.4 | 8.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Georgia Tech | 24-45 | 1234.4 | -4.2 | 1230.2 | 6.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | UTSA | 27-21 | 1230.2 | +64.3 | 1294.5 | 19.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Navy | 31-32 | 1294.5 | -13.1 | 1281.4 | 11.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Charlotte | 49-14 | 1281.4 | +35.8 | 1317.2 | 65.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Tulsa | 38-37 | 1317.2 | +28.7 | 1345.9 | 72.9% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | East Carolina | 14-45 | 1345.9 | -32.9 | 1313.0 | 31.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Army | 13-14 | 1313.0 | -12.2 | 1300.8 | 18.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Tulane | 13-37 | 1300.8 | -10.5 | 1290.3 | 9.3% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | North Texas | 25-52 | 1290.3 | -9.5 | 1280.8 | 14.7% |