| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Louisiana | 14-12 | 1284.9 | +70.4 | 1355.3 | 22.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Houston | 9-35 | 1355.3 | -38.1 | 1317.2 | 37.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Prairie View A&M | 38-17 | 1317.2 | +0.0 | 1317.2 | 25.9% |
| 5 | Sep 18 2025 | W | Charlotte | 28-17 | 1317.2 | +37.9 | 1355.1 | 63.1% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Navy | 13-21 | 1355.1 | -11.4 | 1343.7 | 17.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Florida Atlantic | 21-27 | 1343.7 | -72.6 | 1271.1 | 81.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | UTSA | 13-61 | 1271.1 | -20.3 | 1250.8 | 30.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | UConn | 37-34 | 1250.8 | +62.1 | 1312.9 | 21.2% |
| 11 | Oct 31 2025 | L | Memphis | 14-38 | 1312.9 | -11.2 | 1301.7 | 9.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | UAB | 24-17 | 1301.7 | +28.1 | 1329.8 | 59.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | North Texas | 24-56 | 1329.8 | -21.4 | 1308.4 | 19.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | South Florida | 3-52 | 1308.4 | -12.3 | 1296.1 | 18.8% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | L | Texas State | 10-41 | 1296.1 | -26.3 | 1269.8 | 30.9% |