| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Northwestern | 23-3 | 1578.2 | +26.2 | 1604.4 | 62.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | South Alabama | 33-31 | 1604.4 | +31.3 | 1635.7 | 70.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Duke | 34-27 | 1635.7 | +34.4 | 1670.1 | 51.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Ole Miss | 10-45 | 1670.1 | -15.7 | 1654.4 | 23.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Tulsa | 31-14 | 1654.4 | +6.3 | 1660.7 | 94.4% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | W | East Carolina | 26-19 | 1660.7 | +18.2 | 1678.9 | 72.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Army | 24-17 | 1678.9 | +23.3 | 1702.2 | 65.9% |
| 11 | Oct 30 2025 | L | UTSA | 26-48 | 1702.2 | -68.1 | 1634.1 | 84.7% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | W | Memphis | 38-32 | 1634.1 | +57.5 | 1691.6 | 39.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 35-24 | 1691.6 | +4.0 | 1695.6 | 93.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Temple | 37-13 | 1695.6 | +10.5 | 1706.1 | 90.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Charlotte | 27-0 | 1706.1 | +1.9 | 1708.0 | 97.0% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | W | North Texas | 34-21 | 1708.0 | +24.4 | 1732.4 | 64.4% |
| 18 | Dec 20 2025 | L | Ole Miss | 10-41 | 1732.4 | -14.7 | 1717.7 | 22.3% |