| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Tarleton State | 27-30 | 1616.9 | +0.0 | 1616.9 | 66.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Kansas State | 24-21 | 1616.9 | +53.8 | 1670.7 | 44.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | North Texas | 38-45 | 1670.7 | -72.8 | 1597.9 | 81.4% |
| 6 | Sep 25 2025 | L | East Carolina | 6-28 | 1597.9 | -55.3 | 1542.6 | 71.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | UAB | 31-13 | 1542.6 | +15.6 | 1558.2 | 85.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Charlotte | 24-7 | 1558.2 | +6.4 | 1564.6 | 89.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Tulane | 17-24 | 1564.6 | -23.3 | 1541.3 | 34.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Air Force | 20-17 | 1541.3 | +26.6 | 1567.9 | 75.1% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Temple | 14-13 | 1567.9 | +12.3 | 1580.2 | 81.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Tulsa | 25-26 | 1580.2 | -80.3 | 1499.9 | 92.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UTSA | 27-24 | 1499.9 | +50.4 | 1550.3 | 48.5% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | L | Navy | 16-17 | 1550.3 | -27.6 | 1522.7 | 32.5% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | UConn | 41-16 | 1522.7 | +44.6 | 1567.3 | 47.5% |