| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | App State | 11-34 | 1280.3 | -25.7 | 1254.6 | 24.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | North Carolina | 3-20 | 1254.6 | -30.5 | 1224.1 | 29.0% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Monmouth | 42-35 | 1224.1 | +0.0 | 1224.1 | 17.0% |
| 5 | Sep 18 2025 | L | Rice | 17-28 | 1224.1 | -37.9 | 1186.2 | 36.9% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | South Florida | 26-54 | 1186.2 | -8.1 | 1178.1 | 12.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Army | 7-24 | 1178.1 | -6.4 | 1171.7 | 10.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Temple | 14-49 | 1171.7 | -35.8 | 1135.9 | 34.7% |
| 10 | Oct 24 2025 | L | North Texas | 20-54 | 1135.9 | -12.7 | 1123.2 | 11.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | East Carolina | 22-48 | 1123.2 | -6.0 | 1117.2 | 9.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | UTSA | 7-28 | 1117.2 | -14.5 | 1102.7 | 13.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Georgia | 3-35 | 1102.7 | -0.3 | 1102.4 | 0.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Tulane | 0-27 | 1102.4 | -1.9 | 1100.5 | 3.0% |