| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | VMI | 52-7 | 1614.1 | +0.0 | 1614.1 | 65.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UAB | 38-24 | 1614.1 | +5.6 | 1619.7 | 91.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Tulsa | 42-23 | 1619.7 | +5.2 | 1624.9 | 95.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Rice | 21-13 | 1624.9 | +11.3 | 1636.2 | 82.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Air Force | 34-31 | 1636.2 | +9.0 | 1645.2 | 86.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Temple | 32-31 | 1645.2 | +13.1 | 1658.3 | 88.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 42-32 | 1658.3 | +4.1 | 1662.4 | 93.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | North Texas | 17-31 | 1662.4 | -54.4 | 1608.0 | 71.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Notre Dame | 10-49 | 1608.0 | -10.3 | 1597.7 | 15.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | South Florida | 41-38 | 1597.7 | +34.2 | 1631.9 | 52.0% |
| 15 | Nov 27 2025 | W | Memphis | 28-17 | 1631.9 | +45.1 | 1677.0 | 54.8% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | W | Army | 17-16 | 1677.0 | +27.7 | 1704.7 | 67.5% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | W | Cincinnati | 35-13 | 1704.7 | +21.4 | 1726.1 | 74.8% |