| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Virginia Military Institute | 52-7 | 1615.8 | +0.0 | 1615.8 | 66.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UAB | 38-24 | 1615.8 | +5.6 | 1621.4 | 91.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Tulsa | 42-23 | 1621.4 | +5.3 | 1626.7 | 95.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Rice | 21-13 | 1626.7 | +11.3 | 1638.0 | 82.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Air Force | 34-31 | 1638.0 | +8.9 | 1646.9 | 86.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Temple | 32-31 | 1646.9 | +10.3 | 1657.2 | 90.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 42-32 | 1657.2 | +4.3 | 1661.5 | 93.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | North Texas | 17-31 | 1661.5 | -54.2 | 1607.3 | 70.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Notre Dame | 10-49 | 1607.3 | -10.5 | 1596.8 | 16.2% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | South Florida | 41-38 | 1596.8 | +34.4 | 1631.2 | 51.7% |
| 15 | Nov 27 2025 | W | Memphis | 28-17 | 1631.2 | +45.3 | 1676.5 | 54.6% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | W | Army | 17-16 | 1676.5 | +27.7 | 1704.2 | 67.4% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | W | Cincinnati | 35-13 | 1704.2 | +21.2 | 1725.4 | 75.0% |