| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Alabama State | 52-42 | 1207.5 | +0.0 | 1207.5 | 15.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Navy | 24-38 | 1207.5 | -5.6 | 1201.9 | 8.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Akron | 31-28 | 1201.9 | +28.9 | 1230.8 | 58.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Tennessee | 24-56 | 1230.8 | -2.1 | 1228.7 | 3.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Army | 13-31 | 1228.7 | -15.6 | 1213.1 | 14.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Florida Atlantic | 33-53 | 1213.1 | -41.8 | 1171.3 | 57.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Memphis | 31-24 | 1171.3 | +81.1 | 1252.4 | 3.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | UConn | 19-38 | 1252.4 | -18.8 | 1233.6 | 28.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Rice | 17-24 | 1233.6 | -28.0 | 1205.6 | 40.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | North Texas | 24-53 | 1205.6 | -12.8 | 1192.8 | 11.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | South Florida | 18-48 | 1192.8 | -12.7 | 1180.1 | 11.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Tulsa | 31-24 | 1180.1 | +54.3 | 1234.4 | 43.6% |