| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Rice | 12-14 | 1502.8 | -70.4 | 1432.4 | 77.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | McNeese | 34-10 | 1432.4 | +0.0 | 1432.4 | 40.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Missouri | 10-52 | 1432.4 | -6.2 | 1426.2 | 9.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Eastern Michigan | 31-34 | 1426.2 | -63.2 | 1363.0 | 79.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Marshall | 54-51 | 1363.0 | +62.0 | 1425.0 | 21.3% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | James Madison | 14-24 | 1425.0 | -16.6 | 1408.4 | 25.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 10-22 | 1408.4 | -61.9 | 1346.5 | 66.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Troy | 23-35 | 1346.5 | -15.9 | 1330.6 | 24.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | South Alabama | 31-22 | 1330.6 | +45.6 | 1376.2 | 54.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Texas State | 42-39 | 1376.2 | +34.7 | 1410.9 | 51.4% |
| 14 | Nov 20 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 34-30 | 1410.9 | +52.3 | 1463.2 | 46.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 30-27 | 1463.2 | +9.1 | 1472.3 | 85.9% |
| 18 | Dec 17 2025 | L | Delaware | 13-20 | 1472.3 | -55.5 | 1416.8 | 65.3% |