| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Nicholls | 38-20 | 1434.9 | +0.0 | 1434.9 | 40.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Clemson | 16-27 | 1434.9 | -9.3 | 1425.6 | 14.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Memphis | 7-28 | 1425.6 | -18.3 | 1407.3 | 16.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Buffalo | 21-17 | 1407.3 | +52.4 | 1459.7 | 46.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | South Alabama | 31-24 | 1459.7 | +21.3 | 1481.0 | 68.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Texas State | 48-41 | 1481.0 | +45.5 | 1526.5 | 54.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 37-14 | 1526.5 | +20.4 | 1546.9 | 81.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Louisiana | 35-23 | 1546.9 | +15.8 | 1562.7 | 76.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 10-23 | 1562.7 | -62.8 | 1499.9 | 67.4% |
| 13 | Nov 13 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 0-33 | 1499.9 | -33.8 | 1466.1 | 47.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Georgia State | 31-19 | 1466.1 | +8.0 | 1474.1 | 87.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 28-18 | 1474.1 | +32.3 | 1506.4 | 69.1% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | L | James Madison | 14-31 | 1506.4 | -13.7 | 1492.7 | 20.8% |
| 18 | Dec 16 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 13-17 | 1492.7 | -45.9 | 1446.8 | 54.0% |