| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Texas A&M | 24-42 | 1510.5 | -25.7 | 1484.8 | 37.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Texas State | 36-43 | 1484.8 | -49.4 | 1435.4 | 50.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Incarnate Word | 48-20 | 1435.4 | +0.0 | 1435.4 | 40.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Colorado State | 17-16 | 1435.4 | +46.6 | 1482.0 | 53.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Temple | 21-27 | 1482.0 | -64.3 | 1417.7 | 81.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Rice | 61-13 | 1417.7 | +20.3 | 1438.0 | 69.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | North Texas | 17-55 | 1438.0 | -33.1 | 1404.9 | 46.6% |
| 11 | Oct 30 2025 | W | Tulane | 48-26 | 1404.9 | +68.1 | 1473.0 | 15.3% |
| 12 | Nov 6 2025 | L | South Florida | 23-55 | 1473.0 | -26.3 | 1446.7 | 38.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Charlotte | 28-7 | 1446.7 | +14.5 | 1461.2 | 87.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | East Carolina | 58-24 | 1461.2 | +49.2 | 1510.4 | 34.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Army | 24-27 | 1510.4 | -50.4 | 1460.0 | 51.5% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | W | Florida International | 57-20 | 1460.0 | +35.6 | 1495.6 | 58.1% |