| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Kentucky | 16-24 | 1442.3 | -33.9 | 1408.4 | 47.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Western Kentucky | 45-21 | 1408.4 | +48.5 | 1456.9 | 35.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Morgan State | 60-0 | 1456.9 | +0.0 | 1456.9 | 43.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 13-14 | 1456.9 | -63.5 | 1393.4 | 80.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Akron | 45-3 | 1393.4 | +10.7 | 1404.1 | 83.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Bowling Green | 23-28 | 1404.1 | -39.2 | 1364.9 | 54.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Kent State | 45-10 | 1364.9 | +8.9 | 1373.8 | 86.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Washington State | 7-28 | 1373.8 | -32.1 | 1341.7 | 45.4% |
| 12 | Nov 5 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 42-3 | 1341.7 | +27.4 | 1369.1 | 60.5% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 24-3 | 1369.1 | +65.1 | 1434.2 | 29.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Ball State | 38-9 | 1434.2 | +12.4 | 1446.6 | 81.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 21-3 | 1446.6 | +40.9 | 1487.5 | 59.7% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | L | Louisville | 22-27 | 1487.5 | -24.9 | 1462.6 | 29.3% |