| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Rutgers | 31-34 | 1647.0 | -48.9 | 1598.1 | 65.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | West Virginia | 17-10 | 1598.1 | +32.7 | 1630.8 | 53.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Ohio State | 9-37 | 1630.8 | -4.3 | 1626.5 | 6.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Gardner-Webb | 52-35 | 1626.5 | +0.0 | 1626.5 | 67.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 35-20 | 1626.5 | +13.4 | 1639.9 | 79.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Ball State | 14-20 | 1639.9 | -78.3 | 1561.6 | 94.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 48-21 | 1561.6 | +8.7 | 1570.3 | 86.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 28-21 | 1570.3 | +13.8 | 1584.1 | 87.6% |
| 12 | Nov 4 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 24-20 | 1584.1 | +32.1 | 1616.2 | 54.6% |
| 13 | Nov 11 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 13-17 | 1616.2 | -62.7 | 1553.5 | 79.4% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 42-14 | 1553.5 | +5.0 | 1558.5 | 92.1% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Buffalo | 31-26 | 1558.5 | +19.2 | 1577.7 | 82.5% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | W | UNLV | 17-10 | 1577.7 | +48.0 | 1625.7 | 43.6% |