| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 20-17 | 1520.0 | +31.7 | 1551.7 | 62.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Akron | 68-0 | 1551.7 | +5.7 | 1557.4 | 91.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Houston Christian | 59-7 | 1557.4 | +0.0 | 1557.4 | 58.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Michigan | 27-30 | 1557.4 | -16.2 | 1541.2 | 14.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Michigan State | 38-27 | 1541.2 | +33.4 | 1574.6 | 53.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Maryland | 34-31 | 1574.6 | +41.7 | 1616.3 | 58.7% |
| 9 | Oct 17 2025 | L | Minnesota | 6-24 | 1616.3 | -31.3 | 1585.0 | 44.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Northwestern | 28-21 | 1585.0 | +37.1 | 1622.1 | 48.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | USC | 17-21 | 1622.1 | -35.8 | 1586.3 | 34.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | UCLA | 28-21 | 1586.3 | +44.2 | 1630.5 | 55.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Penn State | 10-37 | 1630.5 | -32.2 | 1598.3 | 45.7% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Iowa | 16-40 | 1598.3 | -35.0 | 1563.3 | 33.7% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | L | Utah | 22-44 | 1563.3 | -19.8 | 1543.5 | 23.3% |