| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Ohio | 34-31 | 1539.0 | +48.9 | 1587.9 | 34.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 45-17 | 1587.9 | +30.1 | 1618.0 | 57.0% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Norfolk State | 60-10 | 1618.0 | +0.0 | 1618.0 | 66.4% |
| 5 | Sep 19 2025 | L | Iowa | 28-38 | 1618.0 | -43.4 | 1574.6 | 43.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Minnesota | 28-31 | 1574.6 | -30.5 | 1544.1 | 43.5% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | L | Washington | 19-38 | 1544.1 | -15.7 | 1528.4 | 23.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Oregon | 10-56 | 1528.4 | -8.6 | 1519.8 | 7.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Purdue | 27-24 | 1519.8 | +23.7 | 1543.5 | 78.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Illinois | 13-35 | 1543.5 | -16.6 | 1526.9 | 25.1% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Maryland | 35-20 | 1526.9 | +25.4 | 1552.3 | 63.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Ohio State | 9-42 | 1552.3 | -2.1 | 1550.2 | 3.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Penn State | 36-40 | 1550.2 | -32.0 | 1518.2 | 30.5% |