| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 39-7 | 1441.9 | +9.2 | 1451.1 | 85.7% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 20-9 | 1451.1 | +34.8 | 1485.9 | 51.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Towson | 44-17 | 1485.9 | +0.0 | 1485.9 | 48.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 27-10 | 1485.9 | +55.9 | 1541.8 | 41.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Washington | 20-24 | 1541.8 | -28.1 | 1513.7 | 26.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Nebraska | 31-34 | 1513.7 | -41.8 | 1471.9 | 41.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | UCLA | 17-20 | 1471.9 | -29.8 | 1442.1 | 42.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Indiana | 10-55 | 1442.1 | -7.7 | 1434.4 | 6.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Rutgers | 20-35 | 1434.4 | -25.5 | 1408.9 | 37.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Illinois | 6-24 | 1408.9 | -7.9 | 1401.0 | 12.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Michigan | 20-45 | 1401.0 | -6.7 | 1394.3 | 5.9% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Michigan State | 28-38 | 1394.3 | -37.9 | 1356.4 | 52.4% |