| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 17-0 | 1768.9 | +13.8 | 1782.7 | 77.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 42-10 | 1782.7 | -8.1 | 1774.6 | 96.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Alabama | 14-38 | 1774.6 | -9.7 | 1764.9 | 15.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Maryland | 10-27 | 1764.9 | -61.3 | 1703.6 | 57.8% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Michigan | 10-24 | 1709.5 | +14.0 | 1723.5 | 16.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Iowa | 0-37 | 1723.5 | -74.4 | 1649.1 | 27.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Ohio State | 0-34 | 1649.1 | -16.8 | 1632.3 | 4.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Oregon | 7-21 | 1632.3 | +38.0 | 1670.3 | 4.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Washington | 13-10 | 1665.9 | +18.7 | 1684.6 | 18.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Indiana | 7-31 | 1684.6 | +12.8 | 1697.4 | 4.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Illinois | 27-10 | 1697.4 | +45.2 | 1742.6 | 25.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Minnesota | 7-17 | 1742.6 | -10.9 | 1731.7 | 54.9% |