| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Utah | 10-43 | 1574.5 | -58.9 | 1515.6 | 62.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | UNLV | 23-30 | 1515.6 | -20.2 | 1495.4 | 29.9% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | L | New Mexico | 10-35 | 1495.4 | -67.3 | 1428.1 | 73.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Northwestern | 14-17 | 1428.1 | -32.0 | 1396.1 | 45.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Penn State | 42-37 | 1396.1 | +77.3 | 1473.4 | 6.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Michigan State | 38-13 | 1473.4 | +50.8 | 1524.2 | 48.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Maryland | 20-17 | 1524.2 | +29.7 | 1553.9 | 57.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Indiana | 6-56 | 1553.9 | -8.1 | 1545.8 | 12.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Nebraska | 21-28 | 1545.8 | -44.3 | 1501.5 | 44.2% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Ohio State | 10-48 | 1501.5 | -1.6 | 1499.9 | 2.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Washington | 14-48 | 1499.9 | -24.7 | 1475.2 | 23.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | USC | 10-29 | 1475.2 | -8.7 | 1466.5 | 13.5% |