| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Montana State | 59-13 | 1989.6 | +0.0 | 1989.6 | 94.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 69-3 | 1989.6 | +2.2 | 1991.8 | 96.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Northwestern | 34-14 | 1991.8 | +5.3 | 1997.1 | 95.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Oregon State | 41-7 | 1997.1 | +1.4 | 1998.5 | 97.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Penn State | 30-24 | 1998.5 | +35.4 | 2033.9 | 65.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Indiana | 20-30 | 2033.9 | -70.5 | 1963.4 | 78.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Rutgers | 56-10 | 1963.4 | +8.6 | 1972.0 | 92.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 21-7 | 1972.0 | +3.0 | 1975.0 | 95.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Iowa | 18-16 | 1975.0 | +24.4 | 1999.4 | 77.3% |
| 13 | Nov 14 2025 | W | Minnesota | 42-13 | 1999.4 | +8.3 | 2007.7 | 87.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | USC | 42-27 | 2007.7 | +16.4 | 2024.1 | 75.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Washington | 26-14 | 2024.1 | +17.5 | 2041.6 | 84.1% |
| 18 | Dec 20 2025 | W | James Madison | 51-34 | 2041.6 | +10.2 | 2051.8 | 84.1% |
| 20 | Jan 1 2026 | W | Texas Tech | 23-0 | 2051.8 | +21.4 | 2073.2 | 74.9% |
| 21 | Jan 9 2026 | L | Indiana | 22-56 | 2073.2 | -47.0 | 2026.2 | 55.2% |