| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Tulane | 3-23 | 1493.1 | -26.2 | 1466.9 | 38.0% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | W | Western Illinois | 42-7 | 1466.9 | +0.0 | 1466.9 | 45.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Oregon | 14-34 | 1466.9 | -5.4 | 1461.5 | 4.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | UCLA | 17-14 | 1461.5 | +31.9 | 1493.4 | 54.8% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 42-7 | 1493.4 | +17.9 | 1511.3 | 73.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Penn State | 22-21 | 1511.3 | +73.2 | 1584.5 | 18.2% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Purdue | 19-0 | 1584.5 | +11.1 | 1595.6 | 82.8% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Nebraska | 21-28 | 1595.6 | -37.1 | 1558.5 | 51.5% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | L | USC | 17-38 | 1558.5 | -15.2 | 1543.3 | 23.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Michigan | 22-24 | 1543.3 | -14.9 | 1528.4 | 13.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Minnesota | 38-35 | 1528.4 | +51.8 | 1580.2 | 31.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Illinois | 13-20 | 1580.2 | -23.3 | 1556.9 | 34.1% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 34-7 | 1556.9 | +18.8 | 1575.7 | 77.9% |