| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | UAlbany | 34-7 | 1679.0 | +0.0 | 1679.0 | 73.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Iowa State | 13-16 | 1679.0 | -27.3 | 1651.7 | 39.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 47-7 | 1651.7 | +14.0 | 1665.7 | 78.7% |
| 5 | Sep 19 2025 | W | Rutgers | 38-28 | 1665.7 | +43.4 | 1709.1 | 56.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Indiana | 15-20 | 1709.1 | -41.6 | 1667.5 | 41.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 37-0 | 1667.5 | +27.3 | 1694.8 | 74.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Penn State | 25-24 | 1694.8 | +36.4 | 1731.2 | 49.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Minnesota | 41-3 | 1731.2 | +30.6 | 1761.8 | 56.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Oregon | 16-18 | 1761.8 | -24.4 | 1737.4 | 22.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | USC | 21-26 | 1737.4 | -30.5 | 1706.9 | 43.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Michigan State | 20-17 | 1706.9 | +8.8 | 1715.7 | 86.4% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Nebraska | 40-16 | 1715.7 | +34.9 | 1750.6 | 66.3% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | W | Vanderbilt | 34-27 | 1750.6 | +51.5 | 1802.1 | 39.4% |