| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Penn State | 11-46 | 1157.3 | -0.9 | 1156.4 | 1.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Sacramento State | 20-17 | 1156.4 | +0.0 | 1156.4 | 12.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Middle Tennessee | 13-14 | 1156.4 | -48.7 | 1107.7 | 49.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 16-31 | 1107.7 | -7.3 | 1100.4 | 11.4% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Fresno State | 17-20 | 1100.4 | -5.5 | 1094.9 | 8.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | San Diego State | 10-44 | 1094.9 | -18.4 | 1076.5 | 16.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | New Mexico | 22-24 | 1076.5 | -11.2 | 1065.3 | 17.4% |
| 10 | Oct 24 2025 | L | Boise State | 3-24 | 1065.3 | -2.6 | 1062.7 | 2.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Utah State | 14-51 | 1062.7 | -11.1 | 1051.6 | 17.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | San José State | 55-10 | 1051.6 | +63.6 | 1115.2 | 19.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Wyoming | 13-7 | 1115.2 | +69.6 | 1184.8 | 23.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | UNLV | 17-42 | 1184.8 | -7.1 | 1177.7 | 6.2% |