| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Utah State | 16-28 | 1209.1 | -23.1 | 1186.0 | 33.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UT Martin | 42-17 | 1186.0 | +0.0 | 1186.0 | 14.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Texas | 10-27 | 1186.0 | -0.9 | 1185.1 | 1.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | UL Monroe | 25-31 | 1185.1 | -43.6 | 1141.5 | 43.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 11-30 | 1141.5 | -31.1 | 1110.4 | 29.6% |
| 8 | Oct 8 2025 | L | Liberty | 8-19 | 1110.4 | -22.0 | 1088.4 | 20.3% |
| 9 | Oct 15 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 35-17 | 1088.4 | +70.6 | 1159.0 | 21.8% |
| 11 | Oct 28 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 20-33 | 1159.0 | -14.3 | 1144.7 | 21.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 27-30 | 1144.7 | -12.7 | 1132.0 | 11.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Missouri State | 24-38 | 1132.0 | -5.1 | 1126.9 | 8.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | New Mexico State | 31-34 | 1126.9 | -43.4 | 1083.5 | 43.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Delaware | 31-61 | 1083.5 | -11.5 | 1072.0 | 17.7% |