| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Akron | 10-0 | 1389.2 | +23.8 | 1413.0 | 77.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Northern Iowa | 31-7 | 1413.0 | +0.0 | 1413.0 | 37.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Utah | 6-31 | 1413.0 | -33.0 | 1380.0 | 31.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Colorado | 20-37 | 1380.0 | -20.8 | 1359.2 | 30.8% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | UNLV | 17-31 | 1359.2 | -13.0 | 1346.2 | 11.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | San José State | 35-28 | 1346.2 | +37.8 | 1384.0 | 47.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Air Force | 21-24 | 1384.0 | -45.5 | 1338.5 | 61.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Colorado State | 28-0 | 1338.5 | +32.4 | 1370.9 | 54.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | San Diego State | 7-24 | 1370.9 | -27.0 | 1343.9 | 39.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Fresno State | 3-24 | 1343.9 | -21.9 | 1322.0 | 32.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Nevada | 7-13 | 1322.0 | -69.6 | 1252.4 | 76.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 7-27 | 1252.4 | -16.9 | 1235.5 | 25.5% |