| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Temple | 10-42 | 1501.7 | -76.9 | 1424.8 | 87.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Bryant | 26-27 | 1424.8 | +0.0 | 1424.8 | 39.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Iowa | 7-47 | 1424.8 | -14.0 | 1410.8 | 21.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Missouri | 6-42 | 1410.8 | -4.7 | 1406.1 | 7.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 3-21 | 1406.1 | -63.1 | 1343.0 | 67.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Kent State | 6-42 | 1343.0 | -73.1 | 1269.9 | 89.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Buffalo | 21-28 | 1269.9 | -38.8 | 1231.1 | 37.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 13-38 | 1231.1 | -25.7 | 1205.4 | 37.3% |
| 12 | Nov 4 2025 | L | Akron | 10-44 | 1205.4 | -37.1 | 1168.3 | 51.6% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | L | Northern Illinois | 3-45 | 1168.3 | -40.5 | 1127.8 | 39.8% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | L | Ohio | 14-42 | 1127.8 | -5.0 | 1122.8 | 7.9% |
| 15 | Nov 25 2025 | L | Bowling Green | 14-45 | 1122.8 | -46.5 | 1076.3 | 46.8% |