| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Wyoming | 0-10 | 1170.5 | -23.8 | 1146.7 | 22.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Nebraska | 0-68 | 1146.7 | -5.7 | 1141.0 | 8.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | UAB | 28-31 | 1141.0 | -28.8 | 1112.2 | 41.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Duquesne | 51-7 | 1112.2 | +0.0 | 1112.2 | 9.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Toledo | 3-45 | 1112.2 | -10.7 | 1101.5 | 16.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 28-22 | 1101.5 | +60.8 | 1162.3 | 22.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 7-20 | 1162.3 | -13.4 | 1148.9 | 11.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Ball State | 28-42 | 1148.9 | -28.5 | 1120.4 | 41.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Buffalo | 24-16 | 1120.4 | +73.9 | 1194.3 | 17.1% |
| 12 | Nov 4 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 44-10 | 1194.3 | +37.1 | 1231.4 | 48.4% |
| 13 | Nov 11 2025 | L | Kent State | 35-42 | 1231.4 | -65.0 | 1166.4 | 70.3% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 19-16 | 1166.4 | +52.9 | 1219.3 | 45.5% |