| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Minnesota | 10-23 | 1440.6 | -14.5 | 1426.1 | 22.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | St. Francis (PA) | 45-6 | 1426.1 | +0.0 | 1426.1 | 39.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Kent State | 31-28 | 1426.1 | +8.3 | 1434.4 | 92.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Troy | 17-21 | 1434.4 | -52.4 | 1382.0 | 53.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | UConn | 17-20 | 1382.0 | -49.6 | 1332.4 | 50.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 31-30 | 1332.4 | +23.3 | 1355.7 | 65.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 28-21 | 1355.7 | +38.7 | 1394.4 | 62.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Akron | 16-24 | 1394.4 | -73.8 | 1320.6 | 82.9% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 28-3 | 1320.6 | +44.3 | 1364.9 | 55.8% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 19-38 | 1364.9 | -42.4 | 1322.5 | 57.7% |
| 14 | Nov 19 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 20-37 | 1322.5 | -33.2 | 1289.3 | 31.8% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Ohio | 26-31 | 1289.3 | -19.2 | 1270.1 | 17.5% |