| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Northern Arizona | 35-7 | 1741.2 | -33.6 | 1707.6 | 96.4% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | BYU | 17-28 | 1707.6 | +14.6 | 1722.2 | 30.8% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | Northern Illinois | 42-17 | 1722.2 | +0.3 | 1722.5 | 95.1% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Washington State | 34-24 | 1722.5 | +4.6 | 1727.1 | 74.3% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | W | Cincinnati | 34-7 | 1727.1 | +16.8 | 1743.9 | 59.0% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | West Virginia | 52-31 | 1743.9 | -0.7 | 1743.2 | 76.7% |