| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Hawai'i | 40-6 | 1655.3 | +86.4 | 1741.7 | 75.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Weber State | 48-3 | 1741.7 | +60.5 | 1802.2 | 93.8% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | W | Kansas State | 23-17 | 1802.2 | -5.3 | 1796.9 | 61.1% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Iowa State | 14-39 | 1795.6 | -47.5 | 1748.1 | 43.8% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 41-13 | 1748.1 | +14.0 | 1762.1 | 87.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | BYU | 27-33 | 1762.1 | +3.6 | 1765.7 | 24.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Houston | 28-31 | 1765.7 | -2.9 | 1762.8 | 55.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Colorado | 52-17 | 1767.8 | +58.7 | 1826.5 | 60.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Kansas | 24-20 | 1826.5 | -4.6 | 1821.9 | 61.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 30-24 | 1821.9 | +16.8 | 1838.7 | 49.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Baylor | 41-17 | 1838.7 | +22.0 | 1860.7 | 60.7% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Arizona State | 23-7 | 1860.7 | +22.2 | 1882.9 | 55.1% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | L | SMU | 19-24 | 1872.8 | -16.1 | 1856.7 | 47.2% |