| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Nebraska | 17-20 | 1430.1 | -31.7 | 1398.4 | 37.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 34-20 | 1398.4 | +33.9 | 1432.3 | 52.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Northwestern State | 70-0 | 1432.3 | +0.0 | 1432.3 | 40.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Kansas | 37-34 | 1432.3 | +68.6 | 1500.9 | 24.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Iowa State | 38-30 | 1500.9 | +68.8 | 1569.7 | 14.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | UCF | 20-11 | 1569.7 | +19.4 | 1589.1 | 71.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 49-17 | 1589.1 | +15.8 | 1604.9 | 85.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Baylor | 41-20 | 1604.9 | +37.7 | 1642.6 | 47.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Utah | 14-45 | 1642.6 | -34.5 | 1608.1 | 48.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Arizona | 24-30 | 1608.1 | -51.9 | 1556.2 | 53.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | BYU | 14-26 | 1556.2 | -19.5 | 1536.7 | 17.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | TCU | 23-45 | 1536.7 | -20.7 | 1516.0 | 30.7% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | L | Navy | 13-35 | 1516.0 | -21.4 | 1494.6 | 25.2% |