| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Hawai'i | 40-6 | 1485.8 | +21.5 | 1507.3 | 68.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Weber State | 48-3 | 1507.3 | +0.0 | 1507.3 | 51.1% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | W | Kansas State | 23-17 | 1507.3 | +47.5 | 1554.8 | 36.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Iowa State | 14-39 | 1554.8 | -13.2 | 1541.6 | 20.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 41-13 | 1541.6 | +14.1 | 1555.7 | 78.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | BYU | 27-33 | 1555.7 | -23.7 | 1532.0 | 21.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Houston | 28-31 | 1532.0 | -34.2 | 1497.8 | 48.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Colorado | 52-17 | 1497.8 | +53.2 | 1551.0 | 45.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Kansas | 24-20 | 1551.0 | +34.2 | 1585.2 | 52.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 30-24 | 1585.2 | +51.9 | 1637.1 | 46.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Baylor | 41-17 | 1637.1 | +27.5 | 1664.6 | 60.3% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Arizona State | 23-7 | 1664.6 | +60.2 | 1724.8 | 36.1% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | L | SMU | 19-24 | 1724.8 | -46.3 | 1678.5 | 54.4% |