| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sep 1 2025 | W | North Carolina | 48-14 | 1672.1 | +21.8 | 1693.9 | 79.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Abilene Christian | 42-21 | 1693.9 | +0.0 | 1693.9 | 75.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | SMU | 35-24 | 1693.9 | +38.0 | 1731.9 | 47.4% |
| 6 | Sep 26 2025 | L | Arizona State | 24-27 | 1731.9 | -34.7 | 1697.2 | 48.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Colorado | 35-21 | 1697.2 | +17.4 | 1714.6 | 74.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Kansas State | 28-41 | 1714.6 | -55.3 | 1659.3 | 71.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Baylor | 42-36 | 1659.3 | +35.4 | 1694.7 | 50.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | West Virginia | 23-17 | 1694.7 | +19.4 | 1714.1 | 82.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Iowa State | 17-20 | 1714.1 | -61.8 | 1652.3 | 66.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | BYU | 13-44 | 1652.3 | -20.0 | 1632.3 | 29.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Houston | 17-14 | 1632.3 | +46.0 | 1678.3 | 53.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 45-23 | 1678.3 | +20.7 | 1699.0 | 69.3% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | W | USC | 30-27 | 1699.0 | +55.2 | 1754.2 | 35.1% |