| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Stephen F. Austin | 27-0 | 1446.6 | +0.0 | 1446.6 | 42.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Rice | 35-9 | 1446.6 | +38.1 | 1484.7 | 62.8% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | W | Colorado | 36-20 | 1484.7 | +45.7 | 1530.4 | 38.5% |
| 6 | Sep 26 2025 | W | Oregon State | 27-24 | 1530.4 | +26.2 | 1556.6 | 75.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 11-35 | 1556.6 | -34.7 | 1521.9 | 33.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 39-17 | 1521.9 | +23.7 | 1545.6 | 78.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Arizona | 31-28 | 1545.6 | +34.2 | 1579.8 | 52.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Arizona State | 24-16 | 1579.8 | +67.3 | 1647.1 | 26.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | West Virginia | 35-45 | 1647.1 | -71.8 | 1575.3 | 79.8% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | W | UCF | 30-27 | 1575.3 | +30.4 | 1605.7 | 71.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | TCU | 14-17 | 1605.7 | -45.9 | 1559.8 | 46.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Baylor | 31-24 | 1559.8 | +46.4 | 1606.2 | 53.3% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | LSU | 38-35 | 1606.2 | +56.9 | 1663.1 | 33.0% |