| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Auburn | 16-17 | 1717.9 | -78.5 | 1639.4 | 54.6% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | W | Prairie View A&M | 44-3 | 1639.4 | +0.7 | 1640.0 | 99.1% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Louisiana Tech | 36-19 | 1640.0 | +47.8 | 1687.8 | 72.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Colorado | 23-13 | 1687.8 | -19.7 | 1668.1 | 74.0% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | W | Arizona State | 55-19 | 1668.1 | +51.8 | 1719.9 | 52.1% |