| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Auburn | 24-38 | 1829.7 | -68.3 | 1761.4 | 52.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | SMU | 48-45 | 1761.4 | +27.2 | 1788.6 | 40.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Samford | 42-7 | 1788.6 | +0.4 | 1789.0 | 97.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Arizona State | 24-27 | 1789.0 | -6.3 | 1782.7 | 43.1% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 45-27 | 1782.7 | +5.0 | 1787.7 | 89.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Kansas State | 35-34 | 1787.7 | -7.1 | 1780.6 | 54.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | TCU | 36-42 | 1775.3 | +7.6 | 1782.9 | 41.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 20-41 | 1782.9 | -27.6 | 1755.3 | 39.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | UCF | 30-3 | 1755.3 | +43.3 | 1798.6 | 44.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Utah | 28-55 | 1800.9 | -37.9 | 1763.0 | 19.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Arizona | 17-41 | 1763.0 | -26.7 | 1736.3 | 39.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Houston | 24-31 | 1736.3 | -14.8 | 1721.5 | 50.8% |